Retirement Income Planner
Run your retirement through a thousand markets, with the same year-by-year taxes, RMDs and Medicare surcharges as the Roth planner, and see the odds the money lasts and the range it could end in.
- Methods explained
- Save scenarios
- Compare saved scenarios
- Chart
- Household prefill
- Printable report
Household
Accounts today
Income and spending
Markets
A 5% average with 12% volatility compounds at about 4.3% a year, which is the steady return the year-by-year table uses. A 60/40 portfolio has run near 10% volatility, all stocks near 17%.
Spending rule and withdrawals
Change withdrawal order by age
Use the order above until the first change. Each change lasts until the next one. Ages follow your original timeline, including after a death.
Roth conversions
Health insurance before 65
Taxes
Markets where the money lasts to 95
…
Running the markets
Chance of running out while someone is alive
…
Weighs each failure by the odds of living that long
Median estate, today's dollars
…
After heirs' tax on pre-tax money
Spending a steady 4.3% market carries
$103,610
A year, against the $95,000 you plan
Historical replay
Replay the S&P 500 total return from 1990–2025, including dividends, against this household. This is a 100% US stock stress test. Inflation stays at your 2.5% assumption; taxes and benefits follow your current plan, not historical law. The taxable dividend yield stays at your input.
Source: S&P 500 Total Return (SPXTR), curated market-data extract through 2026-05-22. Calendar-year closing levels; only complete years are included.
Sampled lifetimes
Draw a lifetime for each person alongside each market. Spending must be met through the last survivor's death, even beyond your chosen plan age. This separate check uses your sex and health assumptions.
Sampled lifetime assumptions
Published SSA 2021 period death rates are scaled for health. Lifetimes are independent of each other and markets; this is a scenario model, not a personal life expectancy forecast. The table ends at 120. Each death is modeled at year end; spending includes that full year.
Care is a user-defined stress test. Each person independently draws at most one episode, with an equally likely start age and whole-year duration within your ranges. Episodes starting after death cost nothing; care ends at death. Costs add to ordinary spending, grow at inflation plus your real growth assumption, and are never cut by guardrails. No care-related tax deduction, Medicaid eligibility or insurance reimbursement is calculated. The comparison uses identical lives and markets without care costs.
Sampled deaths replace the fixed spouse death age. Joint filing lasts through the first death year, then the survivor files single. All accounts pass to the survivor, whose age sets RMDs and withdrawal penalties. Household wages stop at your death. Your pension continues only at the percentage above, and only if it had already started. The survivor keeps the larger claimed Social Security benefit from age 60, using the planner's simplified rule; early widow reductions, benefits on an unclaimed record, estate costs and basis step-ups are not modeled. Health premiums cover living members only.
Portfolio across the markets, today's dollars
All three accounts at each year end. Half of the markets land in the dark band and 8 of 10 in the light one.
Will the money outlast you?
Longevity from the SSA period life table, adjusted for health. Failures late in the plan matter less when few households are still around to feel them.
What could you spend?
Bisects on spending to the nearest $250, judging every guess against the same 400 markets.
At a steady 4.3% a year
Year by year at a steady 4.3%
| Year | Age | Spending | Withdrawal order | Social Security | RMD | From taxable | From pre-tax | From Roth | Conversion | Tax | IRMAA | Portfolio | Unfunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62 | $95,000 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $0 | $0 | $91,122 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,122 | $0 | $1,725,923 | – |
| 2027 | 63 | $97,375 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $0 | $0 | $94,824 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,213 | $0 | $1,698,237 | – |
| 2028 | 64 | $99,809 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $0 | $0 | $98,679 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,306 | $0 | $1,666,718 | – |
| 2029 | 65 | $102,305 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $0 | $0 | $102,695 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,401 | $0 | $1,631,133 | – |
| 2030 | 66 | $104,862 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $0 | $0 | $32,239 | $81,782 | $0 | $0 | $9,643 | $0 | $1,582,665 | – |
| 2031 | 67 | $107,484 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $40,731 | $0 | $0 | $78,948 | $0 | $0 | $12,195 | $0 | $1,568,692 | – |
| 2032 | 68 | $110,171 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $41,749 | $0 | $0 | $80,921 | $0 | $0 | $12,500 | $0 | $1,552,056 | – |
| 2033 | 69 | $112,925 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $66,566 | $0 | $0 | $55,401 | $0 | $0 | $9,043 | $0 | $1,561,324 | – |
| 2034 | 70 | $115,748 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $68,231 | $0 | $0 | $56,916 | $0 | $0 | $9,398 | $0 | $1,569,412 | – |
| 2035 | 71 | $118,642 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $69,936 | $0 | $0 | $58,468 | $0 | $0 | $9,763 | $0 | $1,576,231 | – |
| 2036 | 72 | $121,608 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $71,685 | $0 | $0 | $60,059 | $0 | $0 | $10,136 | $0 | $1,581,684 | – |
| 2037 | 73 | $124,648 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $73,477 | $0 | $0 | $61,690 | $0 | $0 | $10,519 | $0 | $1,585,672 | – |
| 2038 | 74 | $127,764 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $75,314 | $0 | $0 | $63,362 | $0 | $0 | $10,911 | $0 | $1,588,088 | – |
| 2039 | 75 | $130,959 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $77,197 | $53,989 | $0 | $11,087 | $0 | $0 | $11,313 | $0 | $1,588,821 | – |
| 2040 | 76 | $134,233 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $79,127 | $55,596 | $0 | $11,236 | $0 | $0 | $11,726 | $0 | $1,587,754 | – |
| 2041 | 77 | $137,588 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $81,105 | $56,980 | $0 | $11,652 | $0 | $0 | $12,148 | $0 | $1,584,763 | – |
| 2042 | 78 | $141,028 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $83,132 | $58,619 | $0 | $11,858 | $0 | $0 | $12,581 | $0 | $1,579,717 | – |
| 2043 | 79 | $144,554 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $85,211 | $60,276 | $0 | $12,092 | $0 | $0 | $13,025 | $0 | $1,572,480 | – |
| 2044 | 80 | $148,168 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $87,341 | $61,945 | $0 | $12,362 | $0 | $0 | $13,480 | $0 | $1,562,909 | – |
| 2045 | 81 | $151,872 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $89,524 | $63,290 | $0 | $13,004 | $0 | $0 | $13,946 | $0 | $1,550,850 | – |
| 2046 | 82 | $155,669 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $91,763 | $64,935 | $0 | $13,396 | $0 | $0 | $14,425 | $0 | $1,536,146 | – |
| 2047 | 83 | $159,560 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $94,057 | $66,185 | $0 | $14,233 | $0 | $0 | $14,915 | $0 | $1,518,629 | – |
| 2048 | 84 | $163,549 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $96,408 | $67,751 | $0 | $14,808 | $0 | $0 | $15,417 | $0 | $1,498,123 | – |
| 2049 | 85 | $167,638 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $98,818 | $68,829 | $0 | $15,922 | $0 | $0 | $15,932 | $0 | $1,474,442 | – |
| 2050 | 86 | $171,829 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $101,289 | $69,766 | $0 | $17,234 | $0 | $0 | $16,459 | $0 | $1,447,393 | – |
| 2051 | 87 | $176,125 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $103,821 | $70,521 | $0 | $18,728 | $0 | $0 | $16,945 | $0 | $1,416,829 | – |
| 2052 | 88 | $180,528 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $106,416 | $70,531 | $0 | $20,949 | $0 | $0 | $17,368 | $0 | $1,382,617 | – |
| 2053 | 89 | $185,041 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $109,077 | $70,744 | $0 | $23,023 | $0 | $0 | $17,802 | $0 | $1,344,540 | – |
| 2054 | 90 | $189,667 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $111,804 | $70,017 | $0 | $26,094 | $0 | $0 | $18,247 | $0 | $1,302,373 | – |
| 2055 | 91 | $194,409 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $114,599 | $68,770 | $0 | $29,744 | $0 | $0 | $18,704 | $0 | $1,255,878 | – |
| 2056 | 92 | $199,269 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $117,464 | $66,875 | $0 | $34,101 | $0 | $0 | $19,171 | $0 | $1,204,804 | – |
| 2057 | 93 | $204,251 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $120,400 | $64,171 | $0 | $39,330 | $0 | $0 | $19,651 | $0 | $1,148,889 | – |
| 2058 | 94 | $209,357 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $123,410 | $59,806 | $0 | $46,283 | $0 | $0 | $20,142 | $0 | $1,087,860 | – |
| 2059 | 95 | $214,591 | Taxable, then pre-tax, then Roth | $126,496 | $54,161 | $0 | $54,580 | $0 | $0 | $20,645 | $0 | $1,021,426 | – |
How it works›
The markets. Each market is a sequence of yearly returns drawn from a lognormal distribution with your average and volatility. One draw a year moves every account together. The draws are seeded, so the same inputs give the same answer until you ask for new markets. Inflation, Social Security and pensions follow the plan in every market.
Each year. The same loop as the Roth Conversion Planner: the RMD on the January balance, any conversion, then spending, drawn in the order you chose. Taxes and withdrawals are solved together to the cent. A market counts as a success only if spending was fully met every year.
Taxes. 2026 federal brackets and deductions, the senior deduction through 2028, Social Security taxed per IRS Pub. 915, capital gains stacked at 0%, 15% and 20%, the 3.8% net investment income tax, and IRMAA on a two-year lookback. A sale below basis realizes a loss, which offsets gains and up to $3,000 of other income a year and carries forward.
Steady return. Volatility drags on compounding: a 6% average with 12% volatility grows a dollar like a steady 5.3%. The year-by-year table and the spending a steady market carries use that rate, so the table tracks the middle of the fan, not its top half.
Guardrails. Each January the household compares its withdrawal rate, spending not covered by income over the portfolio, with the rate its plan expected for that year at the steady return. If the plan itself would run dry, the comparison is to the most a steady market could carry. More than the band above, spending is cut; more than the band below, it is raised. Moves persist and stop at the limits you set.
Longevity. The plan runs to the age you set in every market. The chance of running out while someone is alive weighs each failure by the SSA 2021 period life table's odds, scaled for health, that you or your spouse is living at that age, treating markets and lifespans as independent.
Reference sources. These sources support the component rules. Model choices and exclusions are described in the notes above.SSA: period life tableIRS: retirement distributions